What the Vuelta?

As I mentioned yesterday, Slate has gotten in the business of doing bike reviews that make you less informed. I was only talking about the video they had posted. Boy was I glad that the bike reviewer from the video had also written up his thoughts as well. By far the most hilarious part is the end of the article when you learn that this tool was supposed to review four bicycles instead of three but left one of the bikes outside overnight with an inept locking job resulting in it's theft. I think what really bothered me was that the reviewer is so obviously clueless about bikes. I do believe that sometimes it can be useful to throw novice into things and see what their "fresh eyes" see. But if that's the case, I expect them to admit they're a novice and hold back from making broad generalizations about the topic they clearly know nothing about. And it doesn't help when the Web site trumpets the review with headlines like "The best city bicycle ever" and "You need to buy one." Yes, in my hilly city where I live in an apartment without an elevator I need to by a 47 pound beast that is as slow as it is overpriced. I'd go on more about it but the bike snob tackles things quite nicely. 


Enough of that. I know that a lot of people are gearing up for football season, I'm in the process of finalizing the teams for my fantasy league right now. But I'm also coming up on the close of my fantasy cycling season (this is much easier than actual cycling, but sadly consumes far more time). I compete at this random site one of my former co-workers found a few years ago. I'm about to go into some really boring fantasy stuff before taking about actual cyclists who might win the Vuelta, so feel free to skip down to the next section starting in bold.


After a strong debut last year, I have not done as well this year, finishing 35th in the Giro and 223rd in the Tour out of roughly 1000 people. So I'd really like to get into the top three spots for the Vuelta a Espana. In the league, everyone gets a budget and tries to build the best team possible from the same pool of riders and then guess which days each rider on your team will perform the best.


Now the key to a good cycling fantasy team is to find the handful of guys who will finish high up, the couple sprinters who will win the most stages or have high finishes, and find one or two guys who carry the leader's jersey unexpectedly or perform above their expected capabilities. An added wrinkle to the Vuelta is that historically Italy announces which riders it has selected to their national team for the world championships during the 3 week tour. As a result, Italian riders picked to the team often drop out of the race before it is done.


So here are some guys I'm thinking of taking on my team and my thoughts on how well they might do in the Vuelta.


Andy Schleck - He has come in 2nd at the Giro and Tour. He could be tired, he could be off form after the Tour. But here's my thinking, if Alberto Contador were in this race, he'd probably win. He's so much better than anyone else, even operating at 85-90 percent he's still better than everyone. And I feel like Schleck is probably somewhere between Contador and every other rider on the planet. So he's going on my team. I'm less sure about taking his brother Frank, but I feel like both brothers could end up in the top five and I could rework my line up to get him in.


Sammy Sanchez - This is a no brainer. Sanchez is gifted, set for a breakthrough and he gave up most of his year to focus on the Vuelta. Just the fact that this race is his top priority puts him well ahead of most everyone else in the race.


Alejandro Valverde - Since this guy is probably going to get banned everywhere at some point (he's already been banned by Italy for DNA linking him to the doping scandal operation puerto) the Vuelta is going to be huge for him. I don't believe Valverde is capable physically, mentally or strategically of winning a grand tour, but he sure knows how to string together a great week to 10 days.


Zeke Mosquera - He's the highest finisher (4th) returning from last year and historically has done well at the Spanish tour, so he gets the nod.


Now comes the hard part, I've got room for one more rider going for the overall win, but I really don't know who to choose. Here is who I'm leaning toward.


Cadel Evans - The man who finished No. 2 twice at the Tour de France only to be nonexistent this year. After battling injuries and the pressure of being the favorite last year, he really fell off this year. I wonder, does this help him or hurt him? He's been one of the most consistent and talented riders the past three years. From a talent level I'd put him ahead of pretty much everyone in the race, but does he have anything left? I may end up picking Frank Schleck instead and getting a more high powered sprinter. At which point I'm sure Evans would win the Vuelta.


For sprinters I'm locked into Tyler Farrar, he's on form and proven to be in the mix at the Giro and Tour. And Andre Greipel should benefit from Cavendish's train and has won 15 races himself this year.  After that I'm a bit more hazy. It will probably be some combination of Gerald Ciolek, Daniele Bennati, and Oscar Freire. I'd say I have questions about Bennati, he's shown he can be dominant in the past, but he's been bothered by injuries all season and I don't really have any clue as to his form. Add in that he could leave the race to prepare for the world championships (being Italian and all) and he's a bit of an unknown. If he were out than I suppose Tom Boonen could be in. But for me, Boonen has almost turned into a Terrell Owens type guy. He's talented but often makes his teammates lose out on opportunities and in the end not really very fun to cheer for.


So that's my thinking right now. I'm sure that once the race starts and my roster is set I'll regret not taking a whole host of guys. Usually it's wise to find that guy from the race's host nation who is on the cusp of breaking out, but I can't bring myself to dig that deep. Or maybe returning cheaters Alexander Vinokourov or Ivan Basso will be the ones to shine. My hunch is they'll need at least this year under their belt to get back to their old level. And of course we know their old level was augmented by doping, so it's unclear what we should truly expect from them. Anyway, I'm hoping for a wide-open, interesting race and I have a feeling Spain will deliver.