Cable guy is coming Wednesday

And the cable guy coming means I will be getting me some Versus. I know they won't be covering the Tour of California in its entirety, but I'm glad they'll at least have some coverage every day. I've been going back and forth on what exactly I want to write about this race. There are so many interesting story lines. I talked with one of my fellow Midnight Ramblers the other day about who I thought would win this bad boy. I think I'll spend the next few days going over the candidates. Here's my initial thoughts.

First, check out the press release from the TOC and take a minute to look at the field for this race. Wow, that's a lot of really good cyclist. I can't say it enough, this race has truly arrived. Now when trying to predict who will win any stage race you have to consider who is actually trying to win. With cycling, you can't just win every race you enter all the time all year round. Well, except for this guy. Yes, his nickname was the cannibal.

Modern cyclists have taken to targeting only a few races throughout the year at which they will actually try their hardest. One reason Lance Armstrong was so successful was because he did not care about anything but the Tour de France. He might enter other races and even win in some of them, but everything was part of a big year-long plan to arrive at the Tour de France in the exact perfect shape (or "form") needed to win the race. So while current Tour de France champion Carlos Sastre may officially be in this race, I'm skeptical that he'll be doing anything more than try to log some training miles in race conditions.

Now who wants to win this race? And who will actually be trying? Since a lot of who wins depends on who has the right "form," many teams won't come out and say who their team captain is. And more and more, these top teams are stocking up on 2, 3 and even 4 guys who can win a stage race. Teams say they'll wait until the race to see who is in the right condition to win, and then everyone shifts to work for that guy. I think that's mostly a load of crap. They know who their man is, they just don't want us to know. And the truth is, I don't know, but here are some of my best guesses.

Levi Leipheimer
The American rider for Astana has won the past two TOCs and despite finishing second at the Vuelta a Espana (like the tour de france, but for Spain!) last year and third at the Tour de France the year before, he seems to continue to move down the ranks of his own team. Just as it seemed Levi was going to be the top dog at Discovery, they brought in Ivan Basso. When Basso got suspended Levi again looked to be the team captain only to see teammate Alberto Contador out-perform him at the Tour de France. The pair moved to Astana with their team manager after Discovery folded and it looked like at least the TOC was going to be Levi's race.

But this year he's now got Lance Armstrong on his team to deal with. And the team is being all vague about who they'll pull for. Not a good sign. But! Levi is not going to have to work for anyone else. That is for sure. He's great in the time trial, he's not a pure climber but he can stay with the top 10 guys in the world in the mountains and he's probably more motivated to win this race than about any other rider on a major team. And with Armstrong and Contador set to be the focus of the tour de France and Giro d'talia (like the tour de France, but for Italy!), that leaves little else for Levi. So I think Levi knows this is his chance to shine and he'll have put in the work to give himself the best shot at winning. In my mind, I think Levi is the favorite.

Lance Armstrong
But Levi may get a challenge from his own teammate Lance. Normally I'd say Levi wouldn't really have to worry. But this is the new Lance. Since coming back he's been wishy-washy about whether he's riding in the Tour de France and has said stuff like the Gir0 d'talia is his main goal. This is very unLance. The guy with the laser focus who wanted to destroy all challengers, and even guys on his own team who looked like they were ridding a little too well in the final year of their contracts (I'm looking in your direction Floyd Landis) is now talking about how great it is just to be out riding again. I know he's also now all about his Livestrong movement and raising cancer awareness.

But still, can Lance turn the competitive juices off? The TOC didn't exist when he was riding before and I have to think part of him would love to show up, win the time trial and the whole race, grab some headlines in the United States and make a statement that he's back for real. And by part of him I mean like 90 percent of him. He's got that 10 percent that's telling him he has to be nice to Levi so the average Joe Plummer thinks he's a good teammate (it's the same 10 percent inside Kobe Bryant that tells him he needs to make awkward jokes so as not to come off as a total basketball assassin), but with guys like Lance and Kobe, that 10 percent usually loses more often than not.

Lance finished 29th at the Tour Down Under, his first stage race back from retirement. He was only 49 seconds behind the winner. The guy finishing second was 25 seconds back, so even without trying very hard Lance was very much in the mix. Lance is one of those rare guys who can kill you in the time trial and kill you in the mountains. Whether he ends up going for the win or not, this race should at least give us more of an idea of what he's got left in the tank after a three-year break. Also, Astana will have Yaroslav Popovych pulling at the front for either Lance or Levi. The Ukrainian returns to their side after a disappointing stint with Cadel Evans' team Silence Lotto. I have a feeling he's going to return to his previous form as a super domestique.

Still to come: I'll be tackling Columbia-Highroad, Garmin-Slipstream, Liquigas, OUCH, Rock Racing and Saxo Bank.