The last of the big dogs

I've mentioned Astana, I've discussed a trio riders looking for a return to glory this year. Now it's time to go over the last main threats of the Tour of California. I believe the race will be won by someone who can dominate in the time trial and protect that lead through the climbs. No stages at the ToC end with a climb and the top sprinters in the world are coming (Mark Cavendish, Tom Boonen, Oscar Freire, Thor Hushovd and J.J. Haedo are the headliners). Those sprinters will have motivated teams hoping to keep everything together for a bunch sprint finish to give their big guns the chance to win. So it could be hard to make up any time on rivals outside of the time trial. And as always motivation and timing are huge factors.

Saxo Bank
This team won cycling's grandest prize last year with Carlos Sastre at the Tour de France. But Sastre took off for start up team Cervelo. Still, I have a feeling Saxo Bank isn't too worried about it's season. Sastre's win was very much a team win at the Tour de France. They used their depth to ride at the front of the pack and set a blistering pace that blew apart the field. By the end of the big climbs there were only a handful of guys who could keep up and the team launched attack after attack with different riders until Sastre was able to break free, making up enough time to win the yellow jersey. Sastre is gone, but that depth remains.

My belief that the time trial will be key discounts Frank and Andy Schleck. Both showed they are among the best in the mountains but until they make gains in the race of truth I don't see them winning the tour of California. Fabian Cancellara on the other hand is a killer in the time trial (Yep, that was him winning the gold medal in China). And the man they call Spartacus just might be able to do enough in the mountains to hold on to the jersey if he takes it in the time trial. A dark horse on Saxo Bank is American Jason McCartney. He finished third in the 2007 ToC and is not afraid of a good climb.

Garmin Slipstream
The American team in the trademark argyle would love to win this race. They'll go all out and like Astana, Saxo Bank and Columbia Highroad they're bringing the big guns. This team is chock full of guys great in the time trial. Christian Vande Velde shocked everyone (even himself) with his fifth place finish at the Tour de France last year. His strong time trials and ability to limit his losses in the climbs were the main reasons for his success. When you read or hear Vande Velde's interviews you realize how huge last year was for him. After years of being the bottle fetcher he was the team captain. He clearly was not sure if he belonged in that role, but after seeing that he was just as strong as the other team captains on the Hautacam stage last year he turned into a believer. In 2008, Vande Velde came in third at the Tour of California and also won the Tour of Missouri (where he says he had intended to just ride in a support role before he accidentally won it). I think Vande Velde would enjoy winning the ToC, but he's clearly focused on the Tour de France so I'm not sure what his form will be for this race.

And if Vande Velde is not ready to go I bet Tom Danielson will be. As I mentioned before, this guy has been off my radar but has had some very solid results. He claims to have cut down on drag by working on his time trial position in the wind tunnel. If he does really well in the time trial, he could end up being the team leader.

And you can't talk about the time trial without mentioning U.S. time trial champion Dave Zabriskie. Like Tyler Hamilton, he'll get to wear a fancy red, white and blue jersey (only his is more like a time trial skin suit). Zabriskie had a terrible crash last year in the Giro d'talia, throwing off his season. This was a big blow to the Garmins. Hopefully he stays healthy this year. Before crashing out Zabriskie talked about how he'd been a good climber in his early days and somehow gotten away from that and how he hoped he could get back to being respectable on the mountains. I'll be looking forward to seeing him back on the bike.

Columbia Highroad
The former T-Mobile team now under American ownership will be going all out to win as much as possible at the ToC. Some teams like to wait for the right chance to take the leader's jersey but I have a feeling the Highroads might actually want to win every single stage of this race (and with the squad they're bringing, they just might be able to do it!). For the sprint finishes they have Mark Cavendish. This guy seems to be able to do no wrong when it comes down to a sprint. And for the rest of the race their options are deep. They've got American George Hincapie who is a strong time-trialist and can dig deep in the climbs. Big George (or Good ol' George as my girlfriend likes to call him) says he wants at least a stage win in California, if not more.

Michael Rogers is back after injuries limited him last year and he showed strong form in the Tour Down Under. I have a good feeling he's going to be in the mix for the leader's jersey. And if all else fails the Highroads can turn to Kim Kirchen. At one point Kirchen held on to both the sprint jersey and the leader's jersey at the Tour de France last year. He had great performances in the time trial, proved he could finish stages strong and might have enough to hang on when the road turns upward in California.

Closing thoughts
I'm sure there are great cyclists I have not mentioned who will have a great week in California. There's just too much talent to keep track of. I'm hoping the race lives up to the star power in attendance. I really do think several teams will be gunning hard for glory and not just showing up for "training in race conditions." The one wildcard with California every year is the weather, which can throw off the best laid plans in a hurry. Whatever happens, I'm really happy I get to watch it live on TV.